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Despite lower price, the growing global LNG market stays tight amid supply constraints, according to the 2024 IGU World LNG Report
has been shaping market development over the past 24 months, as it reached an impressive 1,029.9 MTPA at the end of February 2024 , adding almost 70 MTPA in 2023 and making it the highest year of new additions since 2010. Europe saw the greatest addition of 30 MTPA, followed by Asia's 26.9 MTPA and Asia Pacific's 13 MTPA. The Philippines and Vietnam joined the club of LNG importers in 2023 for the first time.
, with just 0.8% YOY growth from Indonesia's 3.8 MTPA addition at Tangguh LNG. However, global liquefaction capacity is likely to grow to over 700 MTPA by 2030, driven by new FIDs and the start-up of projects currently under construction to support growing demand, particularly in the growing Asian markets, where coal to gas switching is important decarbonization and air quality improvement strategy.
, which became the largest producer and exporter (84.53 MT in 2023 vs 75.63 MT in 2022), followed by Australia (79.56 MT), Qatar (78.22 MT), and Russia (31.36).
to levels palatable for recovery of import growth in Asia , as Platts JKM averaged $13.86 /mmBtu during the year, while average annual price volatility has significantly reduced from 2022 levels but remains above pre-crisis. China came back as the largest LNG importer at 71.19 MT, Japan and Korea remained second and third despite annual declines, and India came back to the fourth position, with more demand responding to the lower spot price. Europe also cemented its role as an LNG importing heavyweight, maintaining the second-largest importing region spot at 121.29 MT in 2023. With LNG supplying almost half of Europe's gas, the competition between Asian and European markets remains as key market dynamic.
as it responds to growing gas demand in emerging markets, increasing number and diversification of market participants, and the acceleration of technology development and innovation. LNG industry is no longer a game only for big markets or big companies, with portfolio players playing an increasingly more important role In 2023, about 180 companies were involved in LNG deliveries under term contracts, while about 35% of the transactions were spot-priced.
, contributing the fragility of its current equilibrium. Key sources of this uncertainty include: the Biden Administration non-FTA LNG project approvals pause, which could delay over 70 MTPA of new capacity; sanctions on Russian LNG, which impact almost 20 MTPA of expected capacity; the possibility that Ukraine may not extend the Russian gas transit deal at the end of 2024; shipyard bottlenecks; the ongoing security risk in the Middle East ; as well as some declining gas field supply. Over 120 MTPA of currently operational liquefaction capacity is over 20 years old, and some of these facilities are being mothballed due to insufficient upstream gas production, which calls for attention to the supply side risk.
Leveraging the IGU's vast global gas value chain network across 80 countries, the report provides the most authoritative public data and analysis on LNG trade, price, liquefaction, regasification, shipping, bunkering, as well as key developments impacting the global LNG market.
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