Arte e Cultura
Artprice100(C): The Art Market's Blue-chip Artists Yield Nearly as Much as the Top Performing Companies in the American Economy
The performance of the Artprice100© over the first half of 2019 was driven by exceptionally strong demand, barely satisfied by supply. The supply/demand imbalance, generated a rapid increase in value, particularly on works by the 100 top performing artists on the global secondary art market.
The turnover slowdown recorded in H1 2019 by major auction houses, including Sotheby's (-9%) and Christie's (-28%), reflects a less dynamic high-end market than in previous years. However, prices have shown no signs of fatigue and the contraction in the volume of sales is a reminder that the art market is directly dependent on the number of works in circulation.
In a financial context of sustained negative or near-zero refinancing rates, some collectors are probably preferring to hold certain artworks and not cash in on investments that remain highly competitive. Moreover, the persistence of extremely high transaction costs, both in galleries and in auction rooms, is discouraging short holding periods (under five years), and tempting some collectors to consider private transactions as an alternative.
Heavily weighted in our Artprice100© index with 9.1% of the portfolio, Pablo Picasso has not contributed to its value accretion for several years. As we have seen over the last four years, his prices contracted -2% in the first half of 2019.
However, Andy Warhol , Fu Baoshi, Zao Wou-Ki and particularly Wu Guanzhong have all clearly enjoyed value accretion, providing the main thrust for the progression of our Artprice100© index in H1 2019. Without setting any new auction records, these artists have all enjoyed strong price inflation. The sale of major works by these artists will no doubt confirm the trend.
On 2 June last, a large drawing by Wu Guanzhong entitled (1988) fetched $20.8 million at China Guardian. It was previously acquired for $17.8 million on 3 June 2011 at Poly Beijing. Adding 17% over the last eight years, the drawing generated, in financial terms, an average annual return of +1.9%. However, another Guanzhong resale suggests that the bulk of the value accretion on his works has occurred in the last 6 months: an important Guanzhong work entitled was purchased for $7.1 million on 3 June 2011 (at the same sale as and fetched $7.8 million in December 2018 , an increase of just +9.8%.
Investments in Modern artists carry the least risk and demand for their work is continuing to grow steadily offering attractive returns over the long term. Claude Monet and Paul Signac have both signed new auction records this year. Similarly, 2019 is already proving to be a superb year (the best since 2000) for Paul Cézanne. His painting (c. 1888-90), acquired for $29.5 million in 1999, fetched $59.3 million on 13 May 2019 at Christie's New York , generating an average annual ROI of 3.6% over 20 years.
At the other end of the spectrum, Contemporary artists offer striking returns in the medium and short term. The most spectacular entry into the composition of the Artprice100© index this year is undoubtedly George Condo . The American artist enjoyed a massive secondary market success in 2018with 78 paintings and 34 drawings selling for more than $63 million , and on three continents (America, Europe and Asia )! The Condo phenomenon has been clearly illustrated by a number of rapid resales of small works including (1983), which was purchased for $17,000 in April 2017 in Munich and resold a year later in New York for $46,000 .
In total, there were seven changes this year in the composition of the Artprice 100© index.
Unfortunately, we see no change regarding female artists. This year again, only four of the artists in the Artprice100© are women: Yayoi Kusama ( Japan ), Joan Mitchell (US), Louise Bourgeois ( France ) and Barbara Hepworth (UK). Yayoi Kusama now represents 1.3% of the index compared with 0.9% last year. Her price index rose 20% in H1 2019.
The relegation of Pieter Brueghel II for reasons relating to market liquidity has exacerbated the rarity of Old Masters in the index. Numerically, the composition of the index is dominated by Modern artists, numbering 49, followed by Post-War artists (29), Contemporary artists (12), 19th century artists (8) and lastly... Old Masters (only 2).
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Having produced more than 60,000 books and auction catalogues, Artron is the world's largest art book printer with a total print volume of 300 million a year. It has more than 3 million professional members in the arts sector and an average of 15 million daily visits, making it the world's leading art website."
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