LORD ASHCROFT POLL: MORE AMERICANS EXPECT TRUMP VICTORY IN NOVEMBER; BIDEN'S CAPACITY BIGGER FACTOR THAN TRUMP'S CHARACTER

Commenting on the findings in the introduction to his report, Lord Ashcroft wrote:

"For much of his presidency, Biden's re-election campaign has been a race against time. The worse the economy feels, the more willing voters will be to overlook Trump's obvious shortcomings and put him back in the White House; the taller the green shoots of economic recovery, the less stomach they will have for the 4am tweets and other daily features of the Donald Trump show.

"As my poll found, the country is effectively divided as to which matters more – Biden's physical and mental capacity or Trump's character and judgment. From Biden's point of view, this means that the economy has to work harder to compensate. Yet despite improving indicators like lower and inflation and a rising stock market, few Americans are yet feeling better off.

"Part of the Democrats' problem is that people compare their present circumstances with how things were pre-covid, which also happens to be pre-Biden. This might be unfair, but politics is a bit like that – and only a quarter of voters, including only one in three of those who voted for Biden in 2020, say they feel better off than they did four years ago. At the same time, the new prominence of Biden's health as a campaign issue effectively neutralises Trump's downsides."

The full report – Biden v. Trump: Race Against Time is at the Lord Ashcroft Polls website here.

20,210 adults in the US were interviewed online between 17 May and 7 July 2024. 10,025 of these interviews took place before Donald Trump's felony convictions on 31 May, 5,169 took place after, and a further 5,016 took place after the presidential TV debate on 27 June. Results have been weighted to be representative of all adults in the US. Full data tables are available at LordAshcroftPolls.com.

LORD ASHCROFT KCMG PC is an international businessman, philanthropist, pollster and author. He is a former Deputy Chairman of the UK Conservative Party and honorary Chairman of the International Democracy Union.

LordAshcroftPolls.com  //  LordAshcroft.com  //  Twitter/Facebook: @LordAshcroft

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