ECIPS President Warns Kaja Kallas and Antonio Costa: Prolonging Ukraine Hostilities Threatens European Security

ECIPS President Warns Kaja Kallas and Antonio Costa: Prolonging Ukraine Hostilities Threatens European Security

As Kaja Kallas and Antonio Costa begin their respective terms in office as prominent figures in European governance, the President of the European Centre for Information Policy and Security (ECIPS) the European Union Security Agency, Ricardo Baretzky, has issued a strong warning. Baretzky has expressed grave concerns about the potential direction their leadership could take concerning the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. He points out that any steps to escalate hostilities could contravene international law and pose a significant security threat to the European Union.

Baretzky’s criticism underscores a critical issue: whether Kallas, a seasoned advocate for Ukraine in the European context, and Costa, Portugal’s long-standing leader now stepping into a more prominent EU role, possess the requisite experience to manage the complex dynamics of European interests in a way that prioritizes peace, stability, and the rule of law.

A Warning Against Prolonged Hostilities

In his address, Baretzky emphasized that prolonging the war in Ukraine risks destabilizing the European Union. "This is not a question of supporting Ukraine or Russia; it is about safeguarding the collective security and economic stability of Europe. Kaja Kallas and Antonio Costa must recognize that fostering prolonged hostilities goes against the foundational principles of the European Union," he stated.

His warning comes at a time when EU unity is increasingly fragile, with many member states expressing concerns about the long-term economic and political costs of the war. Baretzky noted that continued support for policies that escalate conflict could lead to internal divisions, economic downturns, and increased security risks, including organized crime, cyber threats, and energy shortages.

The Legal Framework: What Laws Are at Stake?

Baretzky drew attention to the legal obligations of EU leaders under international and European law, specifically citing the following frameworks:

The Treaty on European Union (TEU):

Article 21 of the TEU emphasizes the promotion of peace, international security, and adherence to the principles of the United Nations Charter.

Article 24 of the TEU mandates that the EU's foreign and security policy must adhere to the rule of law and aim to preserve peace.

Supporting measures that extend or escalate hostilities in Ukraine could be interpreted as violating these principles, as they undermine efforts toward conflict resolution and peaceful negotiations.

The Charter of Fundamental Rights of the European Union:

Article 41 guarantees the right to good administration, obliging EU leaders to act in the interest of all member states rather than advancing personal or national political agendas. Prolonging hostilities could be seen as a failure of this duty.

Article 47 ensures the right to fair trial and legal protection, which extends to ensuring that foreign policies do not provoke or support unlawful actions that harm EU citizens or their security.

The Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances (1994):

This international agreement, signed by Ukraine, Russia, the US, and the UK, underscores the importance of respecting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of states. Any EU action perceived as exacerbating territorial disputes in Ukraine could be viewed as a breach of this principle.

The Geneva Conventions:

As signatories, EU member states, including Portugal and Estonia, are bound by obligations to protect civilians and avoid actions that exacerbate humanitarian crises.

United Nations Charter (Article 2):

The Charter prohibits actions that undermine international peace and security or interfere in the domestic affairs of sovereign states. Support for escalatory measures in Ukraine could be interpreted as contravening these principles.

Kaja Kallas and Antonio Costa: A Question of Experience

While Kaja Kallas has built a reputation as a staunch supporter of Ukraine and a vocal critic of Russian aggression, her experience has largely been limited to Estonia's national interests and NATO-related policies. Antonio Costa, on the other hand, has focused on domestic Portuguese policies and is yet to establish himself as a leader on the European stage.

Baretzky expressed doubts about their ability to prioritize European Union interests over national or ideological agendas. "Europe needs leaders who understand the delicate balance required to navigate international conflicts. Neither Kallas nor Costa has demonstrated the strategic depth necessary to lead the EU in a manner that ensures peace and stability," he stated.

The ECIPS President warned that their inexperience could lead to policies that are overly influenced by external pressures, particularly from the United States and NATO, rather than serving the long-term interests of the European Union.

The Security Threats Facing the EU

Baretzky also highlighted the direct security threats posed by prolonging the conflict in Ukraine:

Energy Security:
Europe's reliance on Russian energy has already been a contentious issue. Further escalation could lead to retaliatory actions from Russia, jeopardizing energy supplies and increasing costs for EU citizens.

Cybersecurity:
The conflict has already seen an increase in cyberattacks across Europe, with state-sponsored hackers targeting critical infrastructure. Prolonged hostilities are likely to exacerbate these threats.

Organized Crime:
The chaos of war often provides fertile ground for organized crime, including human trafficking, arms smuggling, and the proliferation of counterfeit goods. The EU risks becoming a hub for such activities if the conflict continues unabated.

Migration Pressures:
Prolonged war will likely lead to further displacement of Ukrainian citizens, adding to the already significant strain on EU resources and social systems.

Economic Instability:
The ongoing war has disrupted global markets, leading to inflation and economic uncertainty. Prolonging the conflict risks further destabilization, potentially causing a recession in Europe.

Baretzky's Call to Action

Ricardo Baretzky called on Kallas and Costa to prioritize diplomacy over escalation. He urged them to:

Engage in Dialogue: Open channels of communication with all stakeholders, including Russia, to explore pathways to a peaceful resolution.

Adhere to Legal Obligations: Ensure that all policies align with the principles outlined in the TEU, UN Charter, and other relevant frameworks.

Focus on European Interests: Avoid being swayed by external actors and prioritize the collective security and stability of the EU.

Promote Unity: Work to bridge divisions within the EU, ensuring that member states remain united in their approach to the conflict.

The leadership of Kaja Kallas and Antonio Costa will undoubtedly shape the EU's trajectory in the coming years. However, as they begin their terms in office, they must recognize the immense responsibility they bear in safeguarding European security and stability.

President Baretzky’s warning serves as a timely reminder that escalating hostilities in Ukraine is not only a moral and strategic misstep but also a potential violation of the EU’s legal obligations. By prioritizing diplomacy, adhering to the rule of law, and focusing on the collective interests of the European Union, Kallas and Costa have the opportunity to steer Europe toward a future of peace and prosperity.