From a Cold Start to a US$180 Billion Market by 2035 - Green Hydrogen is Set to Displace, Outpace, and Outgrow Polluting Alternatives

"We're witnessing the start of a huge upheaval in what is already an established market," says Daniel Burge, Smart Energy Analyst at ABI Research. "Despite previously widespread doubt that green hydrogen would play a role in the energy transition, we're seeing committed investment – a global trend spearheaded by Asia-Pacific – in massive electrolysis productive capacity. Heavy industries, like petrochemical refineries and ammonia producers, are investing in low-emission hydrogen to decarbonize, reduce operational costs, and capture green premiums. Meanwhile, industries unable to electrify recognize green hydrogen as a promising sustainability path."

Net-zero regulations are impacting hydrogen production. Europe's upcoming RED II rules will require 42.5% low-emission hydrogen by 2030, while China and India are also scaling production to decarbonize and reduce costs, aiming to capture significant market share. In 2024, China accounted for about 30% of global hydrogen production, with green H2 output expected to grow at a 38% CAGR through 2035, likely increasing its lead.

This increasing commitment to clean hydrogen has dispelled the uncertainty around whether it is a suitable foundation for the decarbonization of heavy industry – for the largest regions in terms of supply and demand, that decision is clearly already made. "To capitalize on the opportunities inherent of the hydrogen market's prospective transformation and growth, players in petrochemical, chemical, steel, shipping, and aviation industries need to watch closely to see where, when, and how green hydrogen displaces, outpaces, and outgrows grey hydrogen and take its place as a fuel of the future," Burge concludes.

Green hydrogen and electrolyser producers to watch include Adani Energy, Linde, ITM Power, Sinopec, and Plug Power.

These findings are from ABI Research's Hydrogen Market Data report. This report is part of the company's Smart Energy for Enterprises & Industries research service, which includes research, data, and ABI Insights. Market Data spreadsheets are composed of deep data, market share analysis, and highly segmented, service-specific forecasts to provide detailed insight into where opportunities lie.

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