IDTechEx Forecasts Durable, Engineered CO2 Removals Will Reach 630 Mt by 2044

TRL (technology readiness level) chart of carbon dioxide removal technologies covered in the IDTechEx report. Source: IDTechEx

These CDR technologies are at vastly different stages of readiness. Some are nearly ready for large-scale deployment, while others require basic scientific research and further field trials.

Durable, engineered removals versus nature-based CDR solutions

Afforestation/reforestation solutions have historically dominated the supply of CDR due to their low cost and high maturity. However, demand for this type of removal carbon credit has been dropping in voluntary markets over the past few years due to several high-profile scandals and the low durability/permanence associated with nature-based CDR. Instead, corporate buyers have increasingly turned towards highly durable, engineered carbon removal credits generated from approaches such as DACCS and BECCS. These removals offer credible climate action but have a high price tag and are in short supply. Most durable engineered approaches are yet to be included in compliance markets and, therefore, rely on pre-purchases from corporate buyers for early-stage commercial development.

The new IDTechEx report, "Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) 2024-2044: Carbon Credit Markets, Technologies, Players, and Forecasts", provides insights into the most promising technologies being developed in CDR, highlighting the pros and cons of each method, examining key drivers and barriers for growth, and comparing the removal potential, capture cost, and durability of all technologies. Despite capacity currently being limited, there has been much interest in DACCS as a solution to permanently remove CO₂ from the atmosphere and reverse climate change. DACCS is immediate, measurable, allows for permanent storage, can be located practically anywhere, is likely to cause minimal ecosystem impacts, and can achieve large-scale removals.

However, the rate at which DACCS can be scaled up is likely a limiting factor. The challenges of deploying DACCS include the large energy inputs (requiring substantial low-carbon energy resources), the high cost, and the sorbent requirements. The industry is aiming for the ambitious target of gigatonne-scale of DACCS removals by 2050. To make this happen, corporate action, investments, policy shapers, and regulatory guidelines need to come together to bring down the costs.

Although BECCS is currently the most mature and widely deployed durable engineered CDR technology, scale-up has historically been slow, and planned capacity is modest. Despite the technologies behind BECCS being relatively mature, there is a risk that using biomass for CO₂ removal and storage may compete with agricultural land and water or negatively impact biodiversity and conservation. IDTechEx analysis has indicated that BECCS has a large potential to contribute to climate change mitigation, though not at the scale assumed in some models due to economic and environmental risk factors. 

Comprehensive analysis and market forecasts

IDTechEx's "Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) 2024-2044: Carbon Credit Markets, Technologies, Players, and Forecasts" report assesses the CDR carbon credit market in detail, evaluating the different technologies, latest advancements, and potential adoption drivers and barriers. The report also includes a granular forecast until 2044 for the deployment of nine NET categories (DACCS, BECCS, biochar, biomass burial, direct ocean capture, ocean alkalinity enhancement, seaweed sinking, enhanced rock weathering, and carbonation of minerals) alongside exclusive analysis and interview-based company profiles.

Some of the key questions answered in this report:

To find out more about this report, including downloadable sample pages, please visit www.IDTechEx.com/CDR.

For the full portfolio of energy and decarbonization market research from IDTechEx, please see www.IDTechEx.com/Research/Energy.

Upcoming free-to-attend webinar

Carbon Credit Markets: The Rise of Durable, Engineered, Carbon Dioxide Removal Technologies

Eve Pope, Technology Analyst at IDTechEx and author of this article, will be presenting a free-to-attend webinar on the topic on Wednesday 5 June 2024 - Carbon Credit Markets: The Rise of Durable, Engineered, Carbon Dioxide Removal Technologies.

This webinar will reveal insights into the CDR space, and its content includes:

Please click here to check timings and register for your specific time zone.

If you are unable to make the date, please register anyway to receive the links to the on-demand recording (available for a limited time) and webinar slides as soon as they are available.

About IDTechEx:
IDTechEx provides trusted independent research on emerging technologies and their markets. Since 1999, we have been helping our clients to understand new technologies, their supply chains, market requirements, opportunities and forecasts. For more information, contact [email protected] or visit www.IDTechEx.com. 

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